According to the Business Society's Commodity Market Analysis System, from October 7th to 12th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market fell from 9,725 yuan/ton to 9,637 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.09% during the period, a decrease of 4.78% compared to the previous period, and a decrease of 4.01% compared to the same period last year. The price of raw material pure benzene showed weak volatility, and major production companies lowered their listed prices due to insufficient cost support. Downstream chemical fiber companies purchased according to demand, and the supply of goods remained stable. However, due to the weak industry sentiment, the market trading volume weakened.

In terms of costs, the domestic pure benzene market showed volatile consolidation. Sinopec lowered the listed price of pure benzene by 150 yuan to 7,850 yuan/ton, and this price was implemented uniformly by refineries along the Yangtze River and coast. This price adjustment took effect on October 11th. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone production process, pure benzene accounts for 53%, and the trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone. In the short term, the cost of cyclohexanone faces bearish factors.

Comparison of price trends between pure benzene (upstream raw materials) and cyclohexanone:

In terms of supply, according to the statistics of the Business Society's Commodity Market Analysis System, the domestic cyclohexanone production capacity is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is relatively low. Major production companies such as Shijiazhuang Coking, Yangmei Fenxi, Shandong Hongda, Jining Zhongyin, Shandong Haili, and Jiangsu Haili are undergoing maintenance, resulting in limited product supply. In the short term, the supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by bullish factors.

In terms of demand, most cyclohexanone plants are mainly supporting downstream caprolactam production. Caprolactam is one of the main downstream products of cyclohexanone. The price of caprolactam fell after the National Day holiday, and there were fluctuations and adjustments in the upstream crude oil and pure benzene markets during the holiday, resulting in an overall downward shift in prices compared to before the holiday. The caprolactam market follows the cost fluctuations, and coupled with weak confidence in downstream demand, downstream companies mainly seek low-cost purchases after the holiday, resulting in a downward shift in the spot price of caprolactam compared to before the holiday. The demand side of cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

Comparison of price trends between cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream product):

In the future, the raw material market may experience volatile operations, and the cost support for cyclohexanone is unstable. The circulation of cyclohexanone spot is relatively stable, and the market supply and demand are weakly balanced, and it is also close to the breakeven point. Business Society's cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will undergo consolidation in the short term.