The domestic dichloromethane market saw a significant decline this week. In terms of the average weekly prices in various regions, the average price in Shandong province fell by 140 yuan/ton to 2927 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of -4.56%; the price in East China fell to 2903 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of -4.03%; the average price of drummed goods in Jinling, South China fell to 3958 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of -2.99%.

1. Price Analysis

The domestic dichloromethane market experienced a slight decline this week. As of the closing day (in Shandong province), the average weekly price fell to 2927 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.56% compared to the previous week. Luxi Chemical (000830) resumed production at its 80,000-ton/year chloride unit, with a slight increase in operating rate. Most manufacturers maintained inventory at the median level, within controllable range. The cost increased this week, although chloride followed the upward trend, it didn't keep up with the speed of raw material price increases, resulting in a slight decrease in profit margin. Next week, the tightening supply in some areas will bring positive factors. Methanol, the raw material, will experience slight volatility, while liquid chlorine will stabilize. Overall, the cost support is still acceptable. However, the performance of the terminal market demand is not satisfactory, and it is expected that there may be some upward pressure on prices in the short term.

1. Supply Analysis

In terms of supply, as of October 12th, the production of methylene chlorides (dichloromethane + trichloromethane) was 58,800 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons or 0.51% compared to the previous week. As of October 12th, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of methylene chlorides was 78.22%, an increase of 0.44 or 0.57% compared to the previous week. Shandong province: Jinling Dongying unit is planned for maintenance for 15 days; Dongyue unit is running at full capacity.

1. Demand Analysis

In terms of downstream refrigerants:

R32: It showed slight vibration and downward adjustment, while the R32 refrigerant market trended upward. From the cost perspective, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid remained stable overall. Manufacturers mostly relied on long-term contracts. As of the manuscript submission, the mainstream contract price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in the domestic market was 11,000-11,200 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was around 11,400-11,800 yuan/ton. The dichloromethane market experienced slight fluctuations and downward adjustment, with the mainstream price in the Shandong market ranging from 2,920 to 2,950 yuan/ton (ex-factory). The overall cost support is still strong. From a fundamental perspective, in terms of supply, currently, the Jiangsu Melan unit is suspended, and the Shandong Dongyue unit is under maintenance, resulting in continued low capacity utilization rate. With the strong support of the cost side, manufacturers' profits are under pressure, and the mentality of price increase is strong. As of the manuscript submission, the mainstream ex-factory price of R32 refrigerant from domestic manufacturers was around 16,000-18,500 yuan/ton.

Cost Analysis:
Next week, coal prices are expected to remain strong, providing continued cost support. Anticipating an increase in domestic supply expectations, downstream or just-in-time procurement will be the main focus. It is predicted that there will be fluctuations in the spot market price range of methanol next week, with a focus on macroeconomic trends.

Overall Analysis:
Next week, the tightening supply in some areas will bring positive factors. Methanol, the raw material, will experience slight volatility, while liquid chlorine will stabilize. Overall, the cost support is still acceptable. However, the performance of the terminal market demand is not satisfactory, and it is expected that there may be some upward pressure on prices in the short term.

This week (October 7 to October 12), the domestic dichloromethane market experienced a significant decline. In terms of the average weekly prices in various regions, the average price in Shandong province fell by 140 yuan/ton to 2927 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of -4.56%; the price in East China fell to 2903 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of -4.03%; the average price of drummed goods in Jinling, South China fell to 3958 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of -2.99%.